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Title:
Long term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ
Authors:
Milani, Andrea; Chesley, Steven R.; Sansaturio, Maria Eugenia; Bernardi, Fabrizio; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.; Arratia, Oscar
Affiliation:
AA(Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Largo Pontecorvo 5, 56127 Pisa, Italy), AB(Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Calif. Inst. of Tech., Pasadena, CA 91109, USA), AC(E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce 59, 47011 Valladolid, Spain), AD(Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Largo Pontecorvo 5, 56127 Pisa, Italy; IASF-Roma, INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy), AE(IASF-Roma, INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy), AF(E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce 59, 47011 Valladolid, Spain)
Publication:
Icarus, Volume 203, Issue 2, p. 460-471. (Icarus Homepage)
Publication Date:
10/2009
Origin:
ELSEVIER
DOI:
10.1016/j.icarus.2009.05.029
Bibliographic Code:
2009Icar..203..460M

Abstract

The potentially hazardous Asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ has a possibility of colliding with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid, which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary.
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